Understanding morale can be tricky, especially when it comes to average morale. Average morale is the combined morale of your cities and provinces, reflecting how your general population feels. Here are some factors to consider:

1. Homeland vs. Occupied Cities: Homeland cities generally have higher morale and are less likely to rebel. Occupied cities, on the other hand, are more prone to low morale and insurgencies due to foreign rule.
2. Number of Provinces: Your opponent's average morale might be higher if they have fewer provinces, especially if most are homeland cities.
3. Morale Penalties: Check if you have any specific morale penalties that your opponent does not have.

To improve your morale, focus on boosting the morale of your occupied cities and managing penalties effectively.